Better Than Average Bucs Blog 

I’m sure there were a lot of raised eyebrows when Buc fans learned that Dominik traded down for a mere 4th round pick (101 overall). After all, by the draft chart, the Bucs got fleeced, with the trade falling short by about 100 points.

Chuck the draft chart. The chart, developed by the Jimmy Johnson-era Cowboys was once an indispensable tool, but it was made at a different time. Salaries have changed in absolute and relative terms since then, free agency has changed, and the league now has a rookie cap. It’s a useful starting point, but teams can’t be locked into it. The Bucs claimed they were willing to take Mark Barron at 5. They were willing to go down, a bit, but not a lot. That necessarily limited the trading partners – Jacksonville may have been the only option, in fact. There was probably not a lot of leverage for Dom – was it really worth it for him to hold out for full value (according to the chart) and potentially get nothing?

And let’s look at the magical 4th round pick (101), that didn’t exist on Thursday afternoon. Dom used that pick to jump ahead of the Giants to take Doug Martin, getting Denver’s round 1 pick for the 36th pick and a swap of 4th rounders. Tonight, he took the 126th pick that remained from the Martin trade, plus our 3rd rounder (68) and jumped up to grab Lavonte David at 58 (he gained a 7th rounder in the process, so the total number of players we’ll draft remains the same as it was after the Barron trade).

He hasn’t always smelled like a rose, but Dom’s had a heck of an offseason. Through wheeling and dealing, Dom got his first round target, the most complete RB in the draft outside of Trent Richardson, and a probable starter at WILL. Dom started with the 5th, 36th, and 68th picks. According to Mike Mayock’s top 100, we grabbed the 7th, 17th, and 47th best players in the draft. That is maximizing value.

Half-baked thoughts on the Buc’s first round:

- Surprise! The Bucs did a nice job of disguising their intentions. The chalk pick, Morris Claiborne, was there for the taking, but the Bucs didn’t care (in fact, they agreed to a trade before the Vikes had even made their pick at 4). They traded back to 7. That was clearly a move to get Luke Kuechly, right? Nope. Alabama S, Mark Barron, a guy barely discussed as a Buc (I touched on him a bit yesterday, but I thought he was unlikely). From Barron’s initial reaction, it looked like Barron was even surprised. “The loose lips, sink ships” mentality of the Buc’s FO may drive fans and the media crazy, but it serves its purpose – nobody saw this one coming.

- Barron as a tone-setter. I wrote about “fundamental needs” this week, and yesterday, specifically brought up Barron and Luke Kuechly as potential “tone-setters” for a Bucs defense badly in need of an identity. What was last year’s identity? Soft? Sloppy? Rudderless? Barron is a national champion, a 2-time captain, and an enforcer, who will set a physical tone. I expect him to take charge of the back 4 and become a team leader Day 1. As much as I loved Morris Claiborne’s talent, I’m not sure he brought those intangibles to the table.

- Barron isn’t one dimensional. Because so many of his highlights involved him stuffing a running back near the line of scrimmage, there’s a tendency by some to pigeon-hole Barron as solely an in-the-box safety. While he certainly thrives there, he’s also accomplished in the passing game. As NFL Films’ Greg Cosell wrote recently:

“Barron is easily the best safety in this draft class. His tape showed a complete and multi-dimensional skill set, perhaps the most impressive attribute being his man-to-man coverage ability versus tight ends. He also played man-to-man against the inside slot receiver in 3-by-1 sets. The larger point is that Barron can play man coverage, and that has become increasingly important for safeties in today’s NFL. Overall, Barron offers tremendous scheme and position versatility. Safety has still not reached premium status in terms of NFL draft value, but I would argue that Barron is one of the five to seven best players in this draft.”

- NFL coaches love Nick Saban’s defensive players because they are pro ready. As one executive told NFL.com’s Albert Breer:

“They get the best there, but also teach it better, and expect you to execute it like a pro. They’re doing everything right there, so (Barron’s had) A-plus coaching in an A-plus system. Mentally, he’s like a pro already.”

- The tackling in the deep middle just improved – by a lot. According to Football Outsiders, our starting safeties, Sean Jones and Tanard Jackson combined for an incredible 33 missed tackles last year. That’s with T-Jax not even playing a full season. Think those misses didn’t hurt? Barron isn’t just a tackler either – he’s going to leave a leave a mark on some people.

- Momentum. The media uses terms like “momentum” to describe draft risers, but that’s somewhat of a misnomer. Barron didn’t rise, so much as the media finally figured out that teams liked him – a lot. Most teams have already set their draft board well before these so-called risers gain “momentum.” As Dominik noted on the Commish’s show on 1010 this afternoon, Barron’s been the target for a long-time. I think part of the reason that Barron wasn’t on the media radar was that a) he didn’t work out at the combine because of his injury; and, b) safeties aren’t typically considered top 10 picks.

- Getting good value. I’m a big believer in value, and no, safety isn’t a “premium position” typically. But then again, of the 4 historically premium draft positions – QB, LT, Pass-Rusher, CB – only one of those made sense in this draft for the Bucs. We have our QB, the only elite LT was taken ahead of us, and it’s a terrible draft for pass-rushers. Plus, we spent our number 1 last year on Adrian Clayborn. The only real argument is for the CB, and clearly there was something about Claiborne that didn’t fit what the Bucs wanted. Normally, I’d say you could grab a safety later. After all, the Bucs have had success with safeties in rounds 3 (John Lynch), 4 (Dirty Jack), and 5 (Jermaine Phillips). That wasn’t happening in this draft- if the Bucs wanted a starter at safety, it was Barron or bust.

Value isn’t just about a single pick, it’s about the whole draft. If you understand the relative strengths of each position in the draft, you can make moves that individually may not make sense, but as a whole maximize the total value of your draft picks. The Bucs didn’t just get Barron, the got Barron plus a 4th rounder. Without that pick, the Bucs probably don’t get Doug Martin, and maybe aren’t able to address running back at all in round 2. The Bucs may not fill all the holes with starters, but by taking Barron first, they might be able to find more starters than they would had they started with a different position first.

- 2+2 doesn’t always equal 4. There was a lot of talk that the presence of Morris Claiborne’s position coach, combined with the obvious need for corner, pretty much guaranteed that the Bucs were taking Morris Claiborne. As I’ve mentioned before, these coach-player connections can be taken too far. The math doesn’t always work out. Sometimes, the insights gleaned from the coach-player relationship can actually harm the chances of a player being the pick, and even when a player gets good marks from the coach, it might not trump other considerations. I have no insight into whether Cooper sung Claiborne’s praises or slammed him mercilessly, but in the end, I’m not sure it mattered. Based on what Schiano (and Dominik) have said about Barron and what I know of Claiborne’s strengths and weaknesses, the decision to pass was less of an indictment of Claiborne than it was a case of a player not fitting what the Bucs want to do defensively (or perhaps, not fitting as well as Mark Barron). While I continue to believe that Claiborne was the best CB in the draft, he was not for everyone. His strengths were “mirroring” the player down the field, tracking the football, and making the play. He was a super-smooth athlete, but he wasn’t very physical, and he wasn’t much of a tackler. People constantly brought up Revis Island, but I see a lot more Antonio Cromartie or Asante Samuel in his game. It’s worth noting that several teams with big needs at corner – the Vikes, Jags, and Rams – all passed on Claiborne as well.

- Get a grip, Buc fans. Based on message boards and the radio, there are more than a few people that actually think that Mark Dominik traded down with the idea that he would still get Morris Claiborne, and that the Cowboys “spoiled” Dominik’s plans. I understand that some people have a low opinion of Mark Dominik, and I also understand that there are decent arguments to be made for that position (see 2011 contract, Quincy Black). But in order to believe that Dominik would risk his targeted guy for a 4th rounder when that guy was regarded as the number 1 defensive player in the entire draft, you have to not only believe that Dominik is dumb, but that’s he’s been closed off from communication from the rest of the world. I can’t prove it, but I strongly suspect that Barron and Luke Kuechly were a close one and two, and that Dominik figured that by dropping back two spots, that at least one of them would be there.

- Muscle Hampster! Doug Martin was one of my favorite players in this draft, regardless of position or round. He may not be in Trent Richardson’s class – few are – but he’s every bit the complete back. He’ll run, block, and catch. I’m hoping his presence lights a fire under Blount; just the chatter about Trent Richardson seemed to get him exercised.

- The Five Year bonus. Under the CBA, rookie contracts for first rounders run longer than they do for other rounds. By grabbing Martin in round 1, we can lock him up for 5 years. Had we taken him in round 2 (assuming he was there) – the contract would have been limited to 4 years.

More random thoughts on the draft:

- Despite all the smoke, I think that the Bucs will turn in a card with Morris Claiborne’s name on it.

- While I think Claiborne is the right pick, I can’t remember a year where there were this many players I’d be happy with the Bucs drafting in round 1. There’s a great argument to be made for Matt Kalil, Luke Kuechly, or Trent Richardson, even though intellectually I know that the value may not be equal at all positions. I wouldn’t be quite as keen on Mark Barron or Justin Blackmon, but I wouldn’t be gnashing my teeth either. I’d be happy with a variety of trade-downs as well. I think it would take an off-the-wall pick like Quinton Coples, Michael Floyd, or Mike Brockers to draw my ire this year. We will get an instant impact player at 5, it just remains to be seen which one.

- Pewter Report just came out with their final mock draft (my comments in italics):

1. Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
2. Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State) Pewter Report sees this well-built 6′-1,” 241 lb. LB as an “immediate starter” at WILL. I’m a fan.
3. LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) Without a doubt, James is an intriguing weapon. I worry about how well his frame can handle hits in the NFL.
5. Taylor Thompson (TE, SMU) Thompson has been drawing a lot of interest of late. A DE in college, Thompson has elite size and athleticism.
6. Tavon Wilson (S, IL) I know the Bucs have an interest, as they brought him in for a visit, but as I’ve mentioned ad nauseam, I’m not a fan of this group of safeties. PR claims that he’s a possible gunner on special teams as well.
7. Joe Martinek (RB, Rutgers) Martinek is a versatile FB/HB-type and is a popular option at 7 given that he played for Schiano. Martinek played FB last year, but previously was a half-back, rushing for a 4.5 yards per carry over his career. He ran a 4.4 40 at his pro-day (at 220 lbs), so he’s not your typical pound-it fullback.

Random thoughts as we get closer to go-time:

- Bucs must draft with their head, not their heart. The Bucs can’t “fall in love” with a player, especially not in round 1. I don’t want to hear the Commissioner announcing a trade tonight that involves the Bucs moving up from 5, unless the cost is insanely cheap. The Bucs are not a player away.

- Bucs need to call the Vikings’ bluff. For over a month, Matt Kalil was the chalk pick for the Vikings. Not only was he considered a great prospect, but he was a critical need for a team with a young QB who took too many sacks last year. But with a week to go, we are supposed to believe that a) The Vikes aren’t even considering Kalil (it’s between Justin Blackmon and Morris Claiborne), and b) he’s not all that elite. Sure. 6′-5,” 300 lb. guys with ultra-long arms, great feet, and a pro-pedigree don’t grow on trees. There’s a reason that Tyron Smith – the Cowboys rookie who looks like a long-term, Pro Bowler – started at RT at USC. I’d be stunned if the Vikings don’t take him. Stunned. The question is, will the Bucs get suckered into allowing the Vikes to take him at 5?

- What if the Vikes aren’t bluffing? Well, lucky us. Yes, it means we probably don’t end up with Morris Claiborne as an option, but we are left with an elite LT prospect who we can either take, or put up for auction. Rumors are swirling that the Buffalo Bills would gladly swap their number 1 (10th pick), plus their number 2 (41st pick) to move up for Kalil. The Bucs – if Kalil is there – are a logical trade partner, as the value is about right and the Bills probably need to get ahead of the Rams. The depth is very good at 3 of the Bucs’ need positions – CB, LB, RB – and an extra, early second rounder would give the Bucs lots of flexibility to address those needs with quality players. If we are afraid to drop all the way to 10, we could also possibly use the Bill’s offer to squeeze a trade-up out of the Rams.

- If the Bills offer the 10th and 41st pick for our first, we should take the deal. Obviously we’d miss on a long-term LT, who could end up being pretty great. However, we’d still likely get a crack at one of two excellent players who would fill immediate needs – Luke Kuechly or Mark Barron. At worst, we have a shot at one of the other highly-rated corners in this draft, Alabama’s Dre Kirkpatrick, or South Carolina’s Stephon Gilmore. Having the 36th and 41st pick would give us a shot at some quality players, as well as the flexibility to move back in the first round if there is a highly-rated faller.

- If the Bucs are stuck at 5, should we take Kalil at 5 (assuming Claiborne is gone)? Normally it’s a no-brainer. Left tackle is a high value position, and the best ones almost never make it to free agency. Not only that, but the best ones typically are not found outside the early first round. If Kalil is an elite prospect – and I think he is – then the Bucs have to take him, right? Well, maybe not. For one thing, Donald Penn is there. Sure, Penn is not elite, but he’s a 10-15 LT (depending on the season) who can do the job. If he can keep his weight under control (and he seems to struggle with that), he can play quite a few more years. And unlike Tyrone Smith – whom the Cowboys plugged in at RT immediately – Kalil doesn’t appear to have ability to play either side. He’s pure LT. We would have to move Penn. While Penn has the size for RT, I’m not sure he really has the skill-set (though perhaps it would be hard to be worse than Jeremy Trueblood). There’s also the issue of Penn’s feelings – he’s shown a stubborn streak in the past, and may not be amenable to a switch this late in his career. Would we be forced to ship Penn off to another team?

- What would the opportunity cost of taking Kalil be? The other issue to be resolved is this – taking Kalil would likely be a great long-term move, but does it make us better in the short-run? Probably not by a lot in year 1. Meanwhile, we’ll be passing on very good players – maybe some with very similar grades to Kalil – at need positions. The specific players I’m thinking of are Luke Kuechly, and Mark Barron. (For perspective National Football Post gives Kalil an 8.0, Kuechly a 7.5, and Barron a 7.0 grade, while Mayock ranks them the 5th, 6th, and 7th best players in the draft respectively). While LB and S are not as high-value as LT, they are gaping holes on the Bucs’ defense. I also think the drop-off at MLB and S is quite steep (after Barron, I’m not sure I’d touch a safety until round 5 at the earliest).

- How much influence will Schiano have on the first pick? A GM probably selects Kalil 9 times out of 10 if he’s there. However, as Realist 23 alludes to in the comments, a coach – especially a first year coach trying to establish the “Buccaneer Way” – might have different priorities. Recently, I argued that there were “fundamental needs” that go beyond specific positions. On defense, it was tackling. On offense, it was speed at the skill positions. There’s another “fundamental need” as well – the need for tone-setters on defense. Both Kuechly and Barron fit the bill (in different ways) and might be the type of leaders that Schiano feels he can build his defense around.

- Pro Football Weekly ranks Morris Claiborne as the second best cornerback prospect to come out since 2008, with a 7.0 grade. His former teammate Patrick Peterson is the only higher-ranked corner (8.0). Claiborne ranks higher than Prince Amukamara (6.5), Michael Jenkins (6.45), and Leodis McKelvin (6.3).

- Mike Mayock’s ranking of the top 100 draft prospects is here.

- NFL.com’s Chad Reuter has a 7-round mock out today with pretty interesting picks for the Bucs. It starts out with my favorite 1-2 punch – the comments in italics are mine:

1. Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU); an elite talent with upside, Claiborne can make an impact Day 1.
2. Doug Martin (RB, Boise State); after Richardson, the most complete back in the draft.
3. Mike Martin (DT, Michigan); a relentless NT with a wrestling background, Martin is one of the few DT I like in this draft.
5. Taylor Thompson (TE, SMU); Thompson was a DE in college, but projects to TE in the NFL. He played WR in high school. He’s drawing a lot of late interest from teams – including the Bucs who were at his workout this week – because he’s 6-6, 256 lbs. and is an excellent athlete (4.59 40, 10′-6″ broad, 37″ vertical). Gil Brandt said recently of Thompson: “He caught the ball really well, moves really well, and probably went from an undrafted free agent to a bottom-third-, top-fourth-round type of guy. He’s just a really good athlete who projects in my top 100.” In other words, probably doesn’t make it to round 5.
6. Alex Hoffman-Ellis (LB, Washington State) Don’t know a ton about him, but based on what I’ve read, comes across with a special teams/backup ceiling. No thanks.
7. Janzen Jackson (S, McNeese State). Jackson is a certainly a talent, but doesn’t seem to be a guy I’d pick to fit in with Schiano’s new “Buccaneer Way.” An All-SEC S as a sophomore at Tennessee, he was involved in all sorts of off-field stuff, including an armed robbery (2 others were involved, and the charges against Jackson were dropped). He transferred to McNeese State after being booted off the Vols and played moved to corner.

- Ex-NFL exec. Pat Kirwan has a 2 round mock out. He has the Bucs taking Claiborne in round 1, and Miami RB Lamar Miller in round 2.

- There’s a lot of noise that the Vikings will choose between Morris Claiborne and Matt Kalil, and guys like Peter King and Mike Tanier are pounding the table for Claiborne, citing the woeful pass defense of the Vikings (32nd according to Football Outsiders). I think the Claiborne supporters are missing some things. First, they also couldn’t pass either – they were 28th according to Football Outsiders. While some of that was a function of starting a rookie QB, it was also a function of that rookie QB being planted on his back 30 times (a horrific sack rate of 9.3%). Remember, that’s 30 sacks in just 10 starts. Protecting his blindside was Charlie Johnson, an exile from the Colts who is essentially a G playing LT. Think an upgrade wouldn’t help there? Second, the Vikes are a Tampa-2 team; since when do they need to take corners this high? Their chances of finding corners that can contribute in rounds 2 and 3 for that scheme are pretty high; their chance of finding a LT that can start after round 1 is pretty much non-existent. As I mentioned yesterday, the Vikes have all but hired an auctioneer to sell their pick. I think the chances of that happening are pretty slim. And when they are stuck there, they’ll take Kalil, not Claiborne.

- I think that Football Outsiders’ SackSEER pass-rush predictor and the draft gurus are on a collision course this year. While nobody is calling this a great class of pass rushers, there’s still a surprising amount of love from the draft pundits for this year’s group. Mike Lombardi thinks the 10 – 20 range will see a run on these players, and Greg Cosell has 4 going in that range in his mock draft, based solely on film. Yesterday, I heard a talking head on the NFL Network compare Syracuse’s Chandler Jones to Simeon Rice. While they are similarly sized and both wore orange and blue (for different schools of course), it’s worth noting that Jones has just 10 career sacks. Rice had 44.5 sacks in his Illinois career.

SackSEER, however, calls this group poor, noting that just a single prospect – Nick Perry (not even in Cosell’s 32) – projects to the high 20s in terms of career sacks. SackSEER isn’t perfect – it infamously whiffed on Jason Pierre Paul, but it has been revised and its track record is fairly solid. It certainly nailed it on two Buc draft picks, Julian Jenkins and John Stamper.

My own sense is this a pretty terrible draft for edge rushers. It’s filled with a collection of under-achievers, one-year wonders, position changers, and workout warriors. In 3 years, I think we’ll look back on it the way we do 2007, when Gaines Adams, Jamaal Anderson, Jarvis Moss, Adam Carriker, and Anthony Spencer were all over-drafted. Fortunately for the Bucs, they did their shopping last year.

I’ve been thinking lately about different ways to approach the draft. Typically, we think of needs as positional; e.g., the Bucs need a cornerback, running back, etc.

But instead of looking at needs specifically by position, perhaps the Bucs should take a more expansive view. What do I mean? Well, for example, on offense, there is a clear need for speed. Kellen Winslow, Jr. didn’t scare anybody down the middle, Mike Williams didn’t scare anybody outside, and while LeGarrette Blount scares a lot of would be tacklers, it’s not because they think he’ll outrun them. Vincent Jackson is a step in the right direction. He’s got the speed to take the top off of a defense. But he’s just one guy.

So if I’m picking players for the Bucs, I’m not just looking at a specific need like running back, I’m also looking at the best player at each pick who can add speed to the offense. Whether that’s a slippery running back like LaMichael James (Oregon) or Ronnie Hillman (San Diego State), a slot WR like T.Y. Hilton (FIU) or Devin Wylie (Fresno State), or one of the faster TE’s like Taylor Thompson (SMU) or Ladarius Green (LA Lafayette) is up to the Buc’s brain trust.

On defense, that over-riding need is tackling. In case you needed confirmation, Football Outsiders provides all the gory details. Here’s the parade of horribles:

- Our starting safeties were 2nd (Sean Jones), and 3rd (Tanard Jackson) in missed tackles. Keep in mind Jackson played in just 10 games. His broken tackle percentage – share of broken tackles as a percentage of solo tackles plus whiffs – was a shocking 33.3%. T-Jax should get a boobie prize for accomplishing this feat in just 10 games.

- Of the 23 players with double-digit whiffs, 4 of them were Bucs. No other team had more than 2 representatives. The other two Bucs were Quincy Black (11 missed tackles) and Ronde Barber (10 missed tackles). It’s worth noting that despite the 10 whiffs, Ronde made so many tackles (70 solo stops) that his broken tackle rate is 12.5%. Not great, but not nearly bad enough to qualify as one of the worst 10 defensive backs.

- Good news! New Buc Eric Wright will fit right in – he made the top 7 with 14 missed tackles.

- Two Buc linebackers made the top ten for highest broken tackle rate (minimum of 50 tackles). Quincy Black was the worst tackling linebacker by this measure, whiffing at a 17.2% rate. Mason Foster (7 missed tackles) was 10th, at 10.1%. In 2010, Quincy Black had just 2 broken tackles, and a low broken tackle rate of 3.6%. Can Schiano & Co. get him back on track?

- Two Buc DBs made the top ten for highest broken tackle rate (minimum of 40 tackles – FO uses a lower threshold for DBs than LBs). Sean Jones was second with an atrocious 18.5% broken tackle rate, and EJ Biggers (9 whiffs) was 9th with a broken tackle rate of 15%.

- Guess what? If you take all those bad tacklers and put them on the same team, you get the worst tackling team in football – by a lot. The Buc D had a broken tackle on 9% of plays. Only Philadelphia (8.1%) was in the same galaxy. The next worst was St. Louis, at just 6.5%.

You don’t have to be a statistician to understand how bad the Bucs were as tacklers last year – you just had to watch the games. It affected every aspect of the defense. There were blown opportunities to make big plays, and a consistent inability to get off the field. The Bucs decision-makers have to take tackling into account this week. Mark Dominik puts an emphasis on team captains; I’d suggest he put an equal weight on tackling ability.

As the Football Outsiders article illustrates, the entire back 7 had problems with tackling. Thankfully, there are good tacklers available in the draft. Boston College’s Luke Kuechly isn’t a thumper, but he consistently wraps up ball-carriers – he could be a sleeper candidate for the number 5 pick. Lavonte David (Nebraska), Bobby Wagner (Utah State), and Damario Davis (Arkansas State) are all excellent tacklers. At corner, Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama), Josh Robinson (UCF) and Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) can mix it up. Unfortunately, this is a weak safety class, though a player like Mark Barron (Alabama) could be an option in a trade down.

The Bucs need to find good players, and fill holes in this weekend’s draft. But if they don’t address the broader needs of team speed on offense and tackling on defense, they will have wasted a prime chance to get better.

A week away from D-Day, I thought I’d check and see what the “draft guru’s” are projecting for Tampa Bay (I’m not messing with one-rounders like Don Banks’, or “insider” drafts like Mel Kiper’s).

Wes Bunting, National Football Post

1. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
2. Lavonte David, LB Nebraska
3. Chris Polk, RB, Washington

I can’t argue with the top of this one – this is one of my favorite 1-2 punches in the draft. However, I am not a huge fan of Polk.

Peter Schrager, Fox Sports

1. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
2. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
3. Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Schrager has us passing on Doug Martin to take Sanu, one of Schiano’s best players at Rutgers. I’m a big fan of Sanu, but I have a couple of issues with picking him here. I don’t like the opportunity cost – I think Bucs need to come away with a LB and RB early, and taking a WR here precludes them from addressing one of those spots before round 5. It’s hard to say we are “loaded” at WR after last year, but it’s also not a critical need (though Dez Briscoe might be creating an opening this week). Sanu also doesn’t fill our biggest weakness at WR, which is speed. Still, the guy has great hands, is extremely physical (if you haven’t seen highlights of his hits on defensive backs downfield, you should) and has all the production you want. Shutdown Corner compares him to Marques Colston, which is fairly apt. I just think that for the Bucs, it’s a bit early; If the Bucs do want him, I’d hope that they would trade down a bit to get him. As for Lamar Miller, I don’t think he’s really a fit for what the Bucs want to do; he’s an explosive runner but he looks more like a ZBS running back to me.

Charlie Campbell, WalterFootball

1. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
2. Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
3. Tank Carder, LB, Texas Christian
5. Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma State
6. Evan Rodriguez, TE, Temple

Charlie Campbell worked for Pewter Report through last year, and he knows the Bucs personnel pretty well. I love the 1-2 combo at the top. This 1-2 combo is very popular, both Chris Steuber (NFL Draft Pro), and Dane Brugler (NFL DraftScout.com) feature it in their two-round mocks. My only worry is that Doug Martin is gone before we pick. Carder is an interesting guy (former World Championship BMXer) who made a lot of plays at TCU, but I’d rather have someone like Damario Davis (Arkansas State) here. I’m just not convinced he’s going to be a great pro. I’m not a fan of the safety class, but Martin is one of the better ones, and it is a “need position.” I’m intrigued a bit by Evan Rodriguez, though he looks more like an H-back to me than an on-the-line TE (National Football Post doesn’t include him in the TE rankings, but ranks him #1 among fullbacks). He played the Aaron Hernandez-role for ex-Gator assistant and current Temple head coach, Steve Addazio. Rodriguez’ versatility adds value and makes him a good pick in round 6.

Walter Football (non-Charlie Campbell) mock

1. Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
2. Doug Martin, RB, Boise State
3. Mitchell Schwartz, T, Cal
5. Keenan Robinson, LB, Texas
6. Brandon Hardin, S, Oregon State

Schwartz is a guy with a lot of experience (51 starts), and some versatility (35 games at LT, 16 games at RT). Most sites think he’s more likely to play RT in the NFL. NFP ranks him 5th among tackles; NFL DraftScout ranks him 9th. I can’t argue with the pick from a need perspective – Trueblood is a below average starter and only has one year left on his deal. Dotson is a project who is running out of time to prove he’s a legit NFL player. James Meredith has bounced around is likely a camp body. That said, the Bucs seem to have been focusing on later round tackle prospects in their visits. Keenan Robinson fits the scheme, but he’s not one of my favorites. Pro Football Weekly compares him to Michael Boley, but to me he looks awfully stiff. Mayock ranks him as his 4th best ILB, but I don’t see it all. I also don’t like waiting until the 5th round to address LB. Hardin is kind of interesting in round 6. Hardin is big (6′-3″, 217 lb.) college corner who most people project to safety. He missed the 2011 season due to a shoulder injury, and as a result, he wasn’t invited to the combine. However, he had a good East-West Shrine game and blew up at his pro day – a high school sprinter, he ran a 4.36 and 4.4 40 and jumped high (35.5″) and far (10′4″ broad). At a minimum, he’s considered an excellent special-teamer. His stock is reportedly rising and NFL DraftScout has him as a 4th rounder. Will he get to round 6?

Rob Rang, CBS Sports.com

1. Trent Richardson, RB, AL
2. Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska

I’ve recently explained why I prefer Claiborne so I won’t beat a dead horse here. Still, Trent Richardson is the best back in this draft and will have an immediate impact. David is one of my favorite players in the draft; a tackling machine he’d pay dividends on a team that seemed to set records each week for tackling futility last year.

On Tuesday, the NFL unveiled the 2012 schedule. It’s a tough group of opponents, but we’ve known that for some time. I’m not ready to go game-by-game with predictions – way too many unknowns for that – but I do have a few thoughts:

- The first 4 games will be critical. It’s a cliche that teams want to get out to a strong start – after all, there are only 16 games in a season, and it usually takes 10 wins to keep playing into January. So, duh, you really can’t afford to waste any of them. But in the case of the Bucs, it might psychologically be more important than it would be to other teams. They are coming off of 10 straight losses. They need to rebuild some confidence they lost last year – starting the season 0-4 won’t do it. They have a new coach, who is coming from college – he might need those wins to keep the guys on board with his plan, which based on day one of mini-camp, looks like a 180 from Raheem Morris’ plan.

- Finding wins out of the first 4 will be tricky. First up is Carolina, a team that outscored the Bucs 86 to 35 last year. The Bucs then travel to New York to face the well-rested Super Bowl Champs. The Bucs go back on the road to face an inconsistent but talented Dallas team that beat us 31-15 last year (in Tampa). Our week 4 game against Washington might be in the “must win” category. If the Bucs can win that one and ideally take a division win against Carolina in week 1, they’ll be 2-2 at the bye.

- After the bye, the Bucs get their easiest stretch: KC and New Orleans at home, Minnesota and Oakland at away, and then an historically erratic San Diego team traveling east.

- The final four, outside of St. Louis, could be brutal: Away to New Orleans, home to Philly, home to Rams, and away to Atlanta.

*******
The first mini-camp of the Schiano-era started on Tuesday, and almost all of the Bucs attended. Connor Barth wasn’t allowed in because he hasn’t signed his tender yet. The other no-show – based on Schiano’s press conference – wasn’t expected. So who was it? Dez Briscoe (what did I say about a “history of nonsense” yesterday?), who is basically involved in a lover’s quarrel – you can read about the details here. Not smart, Dez. Not smart at all.

Based on the various media reports, this was a high-tempo, detail-oriented, wake-up call. Gerald McCoy called it “re-establishing order.” The notion that Day 1 of Schiano was a departure from previous practice I thought was best expressed by this exchange between a local reporter and Schiano:

Reporter: Your tempo was faster than the players might have been used to. Is this the speed with which you have always practiced?

Schiano: “That’s the only way I’ve ever done it, wherever I’ve been. That’s the only way I know.”

Get used to it Bucs.

On a more micro-level, I thought it was interesting that Ronde Barber was being used at safety. This could be typical early spring experimentation (remember the “Rocket Backfield?”). However, there’s no question that the team has questions at safety and neither free agency nor the draft offer perfect solutions. Barber claims to be open to it, and says that what he did on Tuesday isn’t new:

“What I have done so far in this camp is really no different than me playing down in the box all those years. I have done some half-field stuff and some whole stuff before so it is not much of a transition. It is just slowing my feet down from corner feet to safety feet.”

*******

Is Aqib Talib on the block or not? Pewter Report, based on a league source, says that he is, and Schiano says he isn’t. In fact, Schiano went a bit further than that:

“I want him to be a Buc. I understand there were issues before I arrived. I do know that. And I’m not naïve to the fact that some of those are a heck of a lot bigger than just playing football. But I am really hopeful, as I’ve said before, that that clears itself up. Because since I met him for the first time he’s done everything I’ve asked. He’s practiced well and prepared well.”

So did PR just get it wrong? Maybe the source was bad, but maybe not. The reality is whether Schiano wants him or not, he’s pretty much stuck with Talib in the short-run. Nobody is going to trade for a guy who is facing felony charges that won’t be resolved until summer and could be facing a suspension from the league even if he is acquitted. That’s today’s reality. Schiano might as well make the most of it, and you do that by backing the player publicly.

However, Talib’s trial was originally scheduled to start in March. Could it be that the Bucs made some hypothetical inquiries back in February, when circumstances were different? After all, the story notes that the Bucs are eager to get more draft picks in this year’s draft. My guess – and it’s just that – is that the Bucs made a few, preliminary calls to gauge value, were laughed at, and have now circled the wagons around Talib.

Confused musings on the Bucs:

- It’s hard not to like the signing of Amobi Okoye, though if I’m nitpicking, I’d have tried to get him to sign a two-year deal. Okoye was one of my favorite realistic options (i.e., not trading the world for Megatron) in the 2007 draft. My favorite was current Browns’ LT Joe Thomas, whom we lost on a coin toss (Bruce Allen oddly spun his inability to guess right between head and tails as a good thing). After Thomas, I liked Gaines Adams, Adrian Peterson, Okoye and not much else. Okoye hasn’t quite lived up to my initial estimation of him as a one-gap penetrator in the mold of Warren Sapp, but he’s been a solid performer. When I saw him play for the Texans, I was surprised at how well he played against the run. Playing for Rod Marinelli on a “prove it” deal, he managed 4 sacks for the Bears as a rotation player. Despite his strong play, he was looking like the odd-man out in Chicago, where highly drafted Stephen Peah and the surprising Henry Melton look to be long-term starters. In Tampa, I suspect that he’ll get a fair shot to start. While McCoy – when healthy – is clearly the best DT on the Bucs, my guess is the new staff will take a “may the best man win” approach to the other spot. Brian Price showed flashes last year, but it’s still a guess as to whether he can hold himself together physically and reach his considerable upside. Roy Miller’s ceiling is more limited, but he can be a solid player at times. Frank Okam is a puzzle to me – a small man in a big man’s body, he seems to do things he shouldn’t be able to do at his size, but also seems to lack the consistent physicality you would expect from the largest DT on the roster. EJ Wilson, who reminded me a bit of Ellis Wymms, played extremely well in preseason before suffering a season-ending injury. Whether he has a realistic chance to make the team is hard to gauge at this point.

Despite being just 24 years old, Okoye will bring a veteran presence for this team. It’s still hard to believe that he entered the NFL in his teens. He has started 59 games in his career – more than G-Mac, Price, Michael Bennett, and Adrian Clayborn combined.

- So much for the Bucs being done with free agency. I expect we’ll see additional veteran signings going forward, either right before the draft to clear some “needs” in advance or right after the draft to fill in any gaps we couldn’t address. One guy who could be of interest to the Bucs is Jonathan Goff. He’s coming off a torn ACL, which may explain some of the lack of interest in his services. As I’ve mentioned previously, you can make too much of connections, but it’s worth noting that he was with Bucs DC Bill Sheridan in New York, and also has a Vanderbilt connection with Shelton Quarles, the Bucs pro personnel guy. Goff’s not a star, but he’s a solid player who if healthy, could provide a weak unit with some experience in the middle.

- Speaking of connections….if Dominik is smart, he has already tapped into the vast personnel knowledge of the former college coaches on the staff. Schiano and his Rutgers’ crew has recruited and/or coached or coached against a number of draft eligible players. Butch Davis, Bob Bostad, and Ron Cooper all have coached top 100 players in this draft. These coaches could provide some real advantages come draft day(s).

- Ron Cooper’s insight into Morris Claiborne might be the most important piece of information the Bucs draft team gets this offseason. Claiborne reportedly scored a 4 on the Wonderlic, which is well…not good. Having heard Claiborne interviewed previously on NFL Network, the low score came as a bit of a shock – the kid does not come across as an idiot. There are some reports, most notably former NFL exec Greg Gabriel’s at National Football Post – that the score was a result of learning disabilities. The Bucs have a huge advantage here – Cooper will know Claiborne inside and out, and is uniquely qualified to assess whether Claiborne will struggle with an NFL playbook. If Claiborne checks out, he is my favorite option for the 5th pick. The 2011 Thorpe award winner has an effortless athleticism about him, and the skill set to be a truly great corner. A former WR, he’s still just tapping into his potential. I’ve heard concerns – expressed almost entirely by fans, not draft gurus or NFL personnel people – that Claiborne never had to match up against the SEC’s best – he did not line up against Julio Jones or Alshon Jefferies, for example. Well, you play who you play. How many elite corners did Jerry Rice face at Mississippi Valley State? Were there elite LT matched up against DeMarcus Ware at Troy State? Had Claiborne come from Conference USA, maybe that’s a concern. But even the bad players in the SEC are good players. He’s been tested plenty.

- Of the consensus top players, one player rarely linked to the Bucs, at least since free agency, is Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon. Unlike USC LT Matt Kalil, Blackmon has a fair chance of being there when the Bucs pick. And yet, there’s little buzz about him within local circles. I suspect that’s not just a function of Vincent Jackson’s arrival, but also the notion that we have some legitimate potential in guys like Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, and Dez Briscoe already on the roster. But does the new crew share that view? As fans, we have no problem completely discounting the good (ok, solid) seasons of several players in 2010 (EJ Biggers, Ted Larsen, Quincy Black) in light of their play in 2011, so why does Mike Williams get a pass? Benn has shown flashes (and personally I believe he’s due for a breakout year) but he’s not lived up to his second round billing thus far, and the investment – from Schiano’s perspective – is on someone else’s dime. Dez Briscoe was another guy who flashed, but how high is his ceiling? Keep in mind that Schiano appears to be no-nonsense guy, and that Mike Williams and Briscoe have lots of nonsense in their history (though in fairness, that was in college). With all that in mind, could Blackmon – for my money clearly the best WR prospect in this draft – be the pick? After all, Raheem Morris or not, it’s still “all about 5″ in Tampa Bay. And what better way to help him than provide him with another elite weapon, like Blackmon?

Ultimately, I think that Justin Blackmon is probably the 3rd or 4th option for the pick. Still, I think it’s a bit weird how few rumors there are about him in connection to the Bucs. If we aren’t interested, why aren’t we at least publicly pumping him up as an option (beyond the obligatory visit we are having with lots of top 10 types)? With the Rams seemingly interested and flush with picks, they would seem like a good “bluff” target; they hand us their 6th to ensure they get Blackmon, we extract a later pick (a 4th?) in the process.

- I know all the arguments about why the Bucs shouldn’t take Trent Richardson. Heck, I’ve made many of them! It’s a passing league – even more so than just a few years ago. You can find quality backs everywhere in the draft and even among the undrafted (and this year there is quality depth at running back). The marginal difference between the best back and “good enough” back isn’t big enough to justify the high pick. Their shelf-life is typically shorter than the average player. Etcetera, etcetera….

And while my mind says no, I have to say that I’m very intrigued by Trent Richardson (maybe it comes from growing up in the run-oriented 70s, as anomalous an era as there ever was in pro football). As a pure runner, he may not be in Adrian Peterson’s class, but he’s more complete than Peterson was coming out. He has as excellent hands, and his blocking – and here I’m deferring to guys like Mike Mayock and others who have watched hundreds of his snaps on tape – is excellent. It seems to me, that if you are going to justify taking a back high, these last two are critical. In today’s NFL, a running back has to be more like Marshall Faulk than Eric Dickerson.

In fact, I suspect the “it’s a passing league” argument doesn’t always adequately account for the fact that the best backs are often a key part of the passing game. Isn’t it sort of hard to understand New Orleans’ passing game without accounting for Darren Sproles’ role? After all, he caught 86 passes and scored 7 TDs. He turned 35 receptions into first downs.

Maybe we look down on this role because of the relatively low yards per catch. After all, on a yards per catch basis, a good running back is equal to late model Ike Hilliard. But consider this – the running back is often the receiver of last or next-to-last resort, often catching the ball near the line of scrimmage. That’s why three of the top yards after catch guys in the league were running backs (Sproles, Ray Rice, and Arian Foster). As we saw this year when our own backs dropped the ball, 8-9 yards is pretty good when the alternative is zero, or the QB taking a sack. Backs play a huge role in blitz pickup as well.

Running backs can also be a key part of situational football – they can be weapons in the red-zone and in short yardage. A good running back can open up the playbook in both situations. While time of possession on average pretty much balances out, timing of possession can be critical. It’s not so much how much time you control, but when you control it that matters. That’s what the 4-minute drill is all about. Running backs can have a huge impact there as well.

Of course, all of these arguments point to the importance of having an effective running game, not necessarily having an elite player at running back. NFL Films’ Greg Cosell, however, makes an interesting point about the presence of an elite back, and how it specifically complements the Bucs’ addition of Vincent Jackson. He notes:

“He’s a free access vertical receiver, a big long strider at his best when he’s able to release cleanly off the line of scrimmage. You put Richardson in the backfield, and you accomplish a number of things. First, you force the defense to defend the run first. You likely dictate eight in the box and single high safety coverages. Secondly, Jackson’s strengths as a deep receiver are maximized. It helps your passing game.”

Cosell, while not disagreeing with many of the “it’s a passing league” arguments made by opponents of drafting a back high, thinks the decision depends a lot on the context. For one thing, what if your QB is not named Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Aaron Rodgers?

Despite the above counter-arguments, I’m still a believer that the Bucs should pick Morris Claiborne. I believe he’s an elite prospect at an important position that’s also a critical need for the Bucs. In fact, there’s a strong argument to be made for drafting more than one CB this year. We of course also need running backs, but at least there we have a guy in LeGarrette Blount who has shown flashes of being the type of back that can cause teams to respect the run. We just need him to do it more consistently, and to round out his game. And if Schiano and Co. don’t totally believe in him, there are cheaper backs like David Wilson (VA-Tech), Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati), Robert Turbin (Utah State), Bernard Pierce (Temple), LaMichael James (Oregon) and many others as options (unfortunately, my favorite back in the draft not named Trent Richardson – Boise State’s Doug Martin – looks like he won’t make it to the Bucs second pick).

If it does happen to be Richardson? Well, I’ll rant a little bit about value and drafting philosophy, but inside, I’ll probably be smiling.

UPDATE: A previous version of this wrongly claimed Okoye played in a 3-4 at Houston. Okoye came too late for Capers, and left when Philips arrived. He played for Richard Smith’s 4-3. The point I was making about the style is simply that I was expecting more “Baby Sapp” and at Houston – despite a 5.5 sack rookie season – he came across more as a run-stuffer to me.

And thankfully, this one isn’t a threat to play for the Kansas City Royals.

5 years, $55,555,555. Not a joke. $26 million dollars of the deal is guaranteed, with those guarantees coming in years 1 and 2. It’s always a risk to pay a WR big dollars, especially one who is 29 years old. But there was a single “Number 1″ (I hate that term) in this free agent pool, and he was it. He’s a legitimate deep threat who will open up the underneath routes for Rejus Benn, Dez Briscoe and Mike Williams in a big, big way. Opponents are going to have to account for him on every play.

I didn’t write a lot about Vincent Jackson, because I didn’t really believe the Bucs would be able to reel him in. Kudos to Mark Dominik and Co. for getting it done. This is a big one.

More free agency thoughts:

- I’m still not convinced that paying 2 guards ridiculous sums is a wise policy, but there’s no doubt that Carl Nicks will improve this OL immediately. With a Joseph, Zuttah, and Nicks interior wall, we can forget “needing” Trent Richardson – we might be able to run the ball successfully with a 90-lb.- weakling from Clearwater Beach. He’s visiting Tampa tomorrow and by all accounts we look like we are in the driver’s seat. UPDATE: Fox 13’s Kevin O’Donnell is reporting that Nicks is Tampa and is meeting with Buc coaches tonight.

- I wanted us to splash the cash for defense, but so far I don’t see a lot of defensive names associated with the Bucs. So far, the only defenders the Bucs are known to have an active interest in are Curtis Lofton and Lions CB Eric Wright. Falcons’ LB Curtis Lofton was rumored to be signed, sealed and delivered early in the day, but it turned out to be bogus. The latest word, according to Justin Pawlowski, is that he asked the Bucs for $9 million per season. Sorry Curtis, you aren’t that good. If that story is true, then Dominik was smart to move on.

- I was sort of surprised to see us linked with John Carlson, the Seattle Seahawks’ TE. I’m a big fan of Carlson, but with KW-II, Luke Stocker, Zach Pianalto (remember, he played for Butch Davis), and Josh Freeman’s friend Chase Coffman already in the fold, TE seem like an unlikely position for the Bucs to address. Then the other shoe dropped – according to the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs, the rumor is that the Bucs shopped KW-II to the Bears. Interesting.